Hai da cambiare?

hands on a stock market

Il mercato valutario, nel 2013, secondo i dati della Banca degli Scambi Internazionali, ha registrato una media giornaliera delle transazioni di circa 5340 miliardi di dollari, dieci volte più del suo cugino più famoso, il mercato azionario; in pratica, ogni giorno, vengono scambiati depositi in valute diverse per una somma pari a tre volte il Pil italiano annuo.

Si potrebbe pensare che questo exploit sia dovuto a una crescita della domanda di esportazioni e importazioni, d’altronde l’esigenza di cambiar valuta nasce proprio in ambito commerciale; tuttavia questo non giustificherebbe l’enorme aumento di 4000 miliardi di dollari di valute trasferite giornalmente tra il 2001 e il 2013 e infatti, sempre secondo i dati citati in precedenza, il peso degli acquisti esteri sul totale degli scambi è solo del dieci per cento. Non a caso, analizzando gli utenti tradizionali, spiccano gli intermediari finanziari, in particolare le banche, che non solo fanno da controparte ai privati, bisognosi di monete straniere per viaggi e vacanze, ma si rivolgono al mercato dei cambi spesso per ragioni prettamente speculative; con questo termine, “speculatore”, non intendiamo l’accezione negativa che ora prevale, bensì ci rifacciamo al significato etimologico, di individuo che trae vantaggio dalle proprie aspettative, e vedremo come le previsioni e le attese giochino un ruolo strategico nella gestione delle riserve valutarie. Per dare un’idea di quanto questo mercato sia allettante, citiamo il caso dell’ungherese George Soros, responsabile di un fondo d’investimenti, che affermò di aver guadagnato, durante la crisi valutaria del 1992, un miliardo di dollari; sempre lui, due anni dopo, ammise di aver perso 600 milioni di dollari da transazioni sullo yen.

Le caratteristiche essenziali che lo distinguono in particolare dal mercato obbligazionario e azionario sono essenzialmente tre:

• E’ un mercato Over The Counter (O.T.C.), cioè non regolamentato, in cui operatori in sedi differenti sono pronti ad acquistare e a vendere a chiunque si faccia avanti e sia disposto ad accettare i loro prezzi.

• Le negoziazioni sono aperte 24 ore su 24, perché ci sarà sempre qualche piazza aperta e con depositi disponibili, prima quelle asiatiche, a seguire quelle europee e infine quelle americane.

• Il ruolo prevalente è recitato dal dollaro statunitense, coinvolto nell’85% delle transazioni, prima di tutto perché molte merci (a partire dal petrolio) sono fatturate in questa moneta, in secondo luogo perché, essendo molto scambiato, spesso conviene prima investire in dollari e poi in valute minori, invece di comprare direttamente le seconde.

E’ importante notare che non si ha un effettivo trasferimento di contanti (per esempio banconote di euro con franchi svizzeri), la maggior parte delle transazioni riguarda depositi bancari denominati in diverse valute. Quindi non ci si può recare in una sede fisica per vedere come sono determinati i tassi di cambio: le valute non sono scambiate in mercati regolamentati come il New York Stock Exchange, ma sono presenti diverse centinaia di dealers (principalmente banche) di cui alcuni sono (non ufficialmente) riconosciuti come market makers, che operano in modo particolarmente continuativo e dettano il prezzo per chi acquista al dettaglio. Proprio per questo motivo, non essendoci una struttura ufficiale che tenga conto del tipo, dell’entità e del numero delle transazioni, è molto complicato ottenere delle informazioni precise: la Banca degli Scambi Internazionali pubblica, ogni tre anni, un’indagine condotta grazie alla collaborazione delle banche più attive nel settore, ma gli investitori necessitano di notizie più fresche e di previsioni per il breve­\medio termine, per cui sono stati creati modelli che permettano di spiegare l’andamento del tassi di cambio.

Il punto di partenza è un’idea semplice, la Legge del prezzo unico (o Teoria del potere d’acquisto), secondo cui se due paesi producono un identico bene il suo prezzo dovrebbe essere lo stesso in entrambi; con un esempio, se lo stesso paniere di beni costa 100 euro in Italia e 10000 yen in Giappone, allora il tasso di cambio dovrebbe essere 100 yen per un euro, per cui, senza considerare i costi di spedizione, sarebbe indifferente comprare il paniere italiano o giapponese. Di conseguenza, se il livello dei prezzi aumenta in un paese rispetto a un altro, allora il primo, colpito dall’inflazione, dovrebbe vedere la propria moneta deprezzarsi; infatti, se il prezzo del paniere aumentasse del 10% in Giappone, allora, per far sì che i due prezzi siano equivalenti, il tasso dovrebbe aumentare sempre del 10% (110 yen per un euro), cioè l’ euro si apprezza e lo yen si deprezza. Questa semplice affermazione ha trovato riscontro in varie situazioni: per esempio, nella prima metà degli anni ’80, le industrie statunitensi risentirono della rivalutazione del dollaro non solo perché diminuirono le esportazioni (i prodotti americani erano più costosi), ma anche perché aumentarono le importazioni, divenute relativamente economiche, in pieno rispetto del modello. Il Big Mac Index, calcolato dall’Economist, si basa proprio su questa teoria, cioè per confrontare i tassi nei diversi paesi utilizza il prezzo del Big Mac (sì, il panino) in ognuno di essi; la scelta non è casuale, è un prodotto presente in molti Stati e più o meno uniforme.

Infatti questo approccio presenta due particolari problemi:

• I beni prodotti nei vari paesi non sono uniformi e i consumatori possono avere preferenze diverse; le Mercedes e le Chevrolet hanno prezzi diversi, ma questo non produce effetti sul tasso di cambio.

• Alcuni beni e servizi non sono esportabili o importabili; per esempio, non avrebbe senso andare in Giappone a tagliarsi i capelli.image001

Tabella: cambio euro­dollaro tra il 23/10/2002 e il 24/10/2015. Dati European Central Bank

Per poter spiegare la grande volatilità dei tassi di cambio, evidenziata nella figura soprastante, è necessaria un’analisi più sofisticata, che tenga conto dei fattori che li influenzano, distinguendo tra il lungo e il breve termine. Nel primo caso la teoria vista sopra, che si basa su motivi di natura commerciale, risulta soddisfacente, per cui gli elementi più significativi sono:

• Livelli dei prezzi relativi.

• Introduzione di barriere commerciali: rendendo meno competitivi i beni esteri, nel lungo termine portano un apprezzamento della valuta nazionale.

• Preferenze per i beni nazionali.

• Produttività: se i prezzi dei prodotti nazionali diminuiscono, aumenterà la domanda, per cui la valuta si apprezzerà.

Nel breve termine sono molto più significative le transazioni di natura finanziaria, per cui l’andamento sarà determinato da:

• Livello relativo dei tassi d’interesse: dove il tasso è più alto c’è un aumento della domanda di titoli, per cui la valuta si apprezzerà.

• Apprezzamento/deprezzamento atteso di una valuta: gli investitori comprano valuta che pensano si apprezzerà.

Quindi, poiché l’apprezzamento atteso della valuta nazionale influenza il rendimento dei depositi in valuta estera, le aspettative riguardo tutti fattori precedenti ( livello dei prezzi, produttività, ecc.) svolgono un ruolo determinante sui tassi di cambio; poiché queste aspettative mutano continuamente, così si spiega la grande volatilità. Per questo motivo le istituzioni finanziarie si preoccupano delle previsioni sul mercato dei cambi e assumono economisti in grado di generarle, ma purtroppo, come già visto, possono incappare in errori considerevoli.

BIBLIOGRAFIA:

Mishkin; “Istituzioni e mercati finanziari”, Pearson, 2015

http://www.ecb.europa.eu

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